Earlier forecasts for Typhoon Mawar had it moving northeastward over the waters south of the Okinawa archipelago, but as of the afternoon of the 28th, the latest forecasts are showing the typhoon passing over several islands north of the Okinawa archipelago.
The forecast of a northeasterly track for Typhoon Mawar has not changed, but the “line” has been pulled further north.
According to the forecast updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency at 6 p.m. on Aug. 28, Typhoon Mawar will soon turn from its current northwestward path to northeastward in the waters east of Taiwan.
It is expected to follow a northeasterly path with “fewer right turns” than expected, heading north of several islands, including Yonagunijo, the westernmost island in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.
It is expected to pass over Yonagunijo and other westernmost islands of Okinawa Prefecture between June 1-2.
At the same time, the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast also pointed to this area as the first area that Typhoon Mawar will seek out in Japan.
Two hours earlier, the Korea Meteorological Administration’s updated forecast at 4 p.m. also showed Typhoon Mawar heading just south of the area. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s forecast of a more northerly track is likely to be reflected in the KMA’s subsequent track update.
The European Center for Medium Term Forecasts (ECMWF) model has been forecasting Typhoon Mawar’s path to Okinawa for several days.
After forecasting Typhoon Mawar’s passage through Taiwan and a northwestward path to the east coast of China as recently as yesterday (Nov. 27), the National Weather Service (NWS) models are issuing a significantly revised outlook starting today. The northeasterly track is now expected to pass over several islands in Okinawa Prefecture.
This is in line with forecasts from the European Medium Term Forecast Center model and the Japan Meteorological Agency.
As Typhoon Mawar approaches, the gap between the forecasts of different weather organizations is narrowing메이저사이트, a situation that often occurs with typhoons.
Both the European Medium Term Prediction Center and the National Weather Service models indicate that Typhoon Mawar will reach the westernmost part of Okinawa Prefecture between June 1-2.
From there, the typhoon will continue to track northeastward across the Okinawa archipelago at a slow pace until around June 5-6. By June 6, the typhoon will be closest to the southern Kyushu region of Japan.
As the prospect of Typhoon Mawar heading toward Okinawa has intensified significantly, Japanese media outlets such as NHK have begun to put news related to Typhoon Mawar at the forefront of their coverage, providing information on evacuation sites and response tips. According to NHK, the typhoon is expected to approach and begin affecting Okinawa three days later on the 31st.
The typhoon did not make landfall in the Philippines and is not expected to make landfall in Taiwan, which means that the closest it will come to land – in effect, a “penetration” – will be Guam, followed by several islands in Okinawa.
However, as it moves further north, the sea surface temperature will gradually decrease, and Typhoon Mawar is expected to gradually lose strength, as opposed to its northwestward progression, when it developed to ‘super-strong’.
The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts that Typhoon Mawar, which is currently a “very strong” typhoon, will downgrade to a “strong” typhoon from tomorrow (June 29), and to a “medium” typhoon on June 2, when it is expected to reach the westernmost part of Okinawa Prefecture. Typhoon intensity is categorized as moderate, strong, very strong, and super strong.
However, the model’s forecast has changed slightly. This is similar to what the Japan Meteorological Agency announced.
Initially, it was thought that Typhoon Mawar would move northeastward over the sea south of the Okinawa archipelago, but now it is thought that it will pass over the sea north of the Okinawa archipelago or pass through several Okinawan islands.